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- h4x0r
Wikmar
Josephine
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¿Alguno más se anima a dar su visión para años vista (época Donald Trump)?
El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
A medio largo plazo (Donald Trump) S&P 500:
Largos:
¿Alguno más se anima a dar su visión para años vista (época Donald Trump)?
Largos:
¿Alguno más se anima a dar su visión para años vista (época Donald Trump)?
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
h4x0r escribió:A medio largo plazo (Donald Trump) S&P 500:
Largos:Laterales:
- h4x0r
Wikmar
JosephineCortos:
- N/A
Otros (exponer):
- N/A
- N/A
¿Alguno más se anima a dar su visión para años vista (época Donald Trump)?
Largos.
El secreto del trading se encuentra en nuestra mente y en la disciplina. Esto no se aprende en ningún libro, se aprende operando y conociéndose a si mismo.
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
h4x0r escribió:A medio largo plazo (Donald Trump) S&P 500:
Largos:Laterales:
- h4x0r
Wikmar
JosephineCortos:
- N/A
Otros (exponer):
- N/A
- N/A
¿Alguno más se anima a dar su visión para años vista (época Donald Trump)?
mi vision bola de cristal en mano es que el sp 500 estara en lateral 10% arriba 20% abajo los proximos 5 años.
Para mi las valoraciones de las empresas son altas y haran una correccion de tiempo para amoldar las valoraciones,sin crashes.
Pero no me baso en nada.Es simple intuicion mia.Pero como yo voy al dia,me da igual saber lo que pasara de aqui a 5 años.
Si me sobrase la pasta para invertir a 30 años yo no compraba ahora acciones.Me esperaba a un bajonazo del 20% para empezar a hacer cartera.
En resumen;yo espero lateral para años.A no ser que se invente algo tipo robotica o yo que se.
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Siempre hay que estar operativamente alerta. Eso como axioma. Pero, de los bastantes hilos de razones por los que hay para estar ahora especialmente alerta, fíjate / fijaros este:Josephine escribió:Aunque en este caso no son estrictamente necesarias razones fundamentales ni técnicas,
por eso siempre compraría algo como lo que dices.
Siempre hay que estar operativamente alerta.
Burbuja de deuda. No es una entelequia. Tanto el sector público como privado mundial, se ha forrado a emitir deuda animados por los bajísimos tipos de interés (no sé si sabes /sabéis que han llegado a haber algunas empresas que han emitido deuda a tipo negativo; le prestan dinero y le pagan por ello).
Bien. Burbuja de deuda porque el dinero es muy papel. En esas situaciones, la asignación de capital, no se dirige, no criba, bien dónde hay valor. Simplemente, es como un riego por aspersión de papel dinero.
Todas las Organizaciones, públicas y privadas, en todos los niveles de valor, pero con más probabilidad, en los niveles de menos valor, ¿qué pasa si, como es muy habitual, no llegan con liquidez al pago de cupones?. Lo habitual es reestructurar la deuda (volver a emitir deuda a más plazo para que la liquidez que entra sirva para pagar el cupón actual). PEEEERO estamos hablando de tener problemas de liquidez que en la mayoría de los casos son problemas de solvencia. Y, ¿no eres solvente ahora con tipos extra-bajos y te vuelves a endeudar CON TIPOS MÁS ALTOS?.
No va a haber mucho problema general si le ocurre a la tintorería de la esquina, ¿pero si le ocurre a alguna/s grande/es empresas, digamos sistémicas o cuasi?, ¿y si le ocurre a algún Estado?; Grecia y Portugal; problema, ¿pero si le ocurre a Italia, y/o a España?. ¿Y a Francia?.
Disparidad de opiniones y disparidad de operativas. Quizá tu tienes mejor capacidad largo plazo que yo, por poner una razón ejemplo.Josephine escribió:No te lo compro.
Supongo que simple disparidad de opiniones.
S2
Última edición por Wikmar el 15 Nov 2016 01:53, editado 1 vez en total.
https://wikmar.wordpress.com
Si quieres algo de privacidad, cuidado con las Nubes, que nadie ha conseguido todavía ponerles una puerta.
Si quieres algo de privacidad, cuidado con las Nubes, que nadie ha conseguido todavía ponerles una puerta.
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Largos:
- h4x0r
Wikmar
Josephine
Juancv
- Jda
- N/A
- N/A
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Buen paper me he encontrado sobre los HFT en E-mini S&P 500
Exploratory Trading
job market paper
Adam D. Clark-Joseph
January 13, 2013
https://es.scribd.com/document/13008664 ... rket-Paper
Exploratory Trading
job market paper
Adam D. Clark-Joseph
January 13, 2013
https://es.scribd.com/document/13008664 ... rket-Paper
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Hola,
Me veo obligado hacer un copy&paste de un hilo de otro foro donde el usuario Orion explica su tesis de la lectura de cinta. Lectura muy recomendaba. A mi sencillamente me ha encantando. Varias de sus explicaciones las comparto y son sobre las que vengo trabajando.
//---------------------------//
It seems that many people try to implement tape reading into their trading, the subject in itself and what information that can be gained from it, to me, is a fascinating subject. Tape reading is an art and frankly tricky business, and I have yet to find any detailed course on it. I will however try and explain my hypothesis on it and how I implement it in trading the S&P. You can take it for what it is, it is simply my two cents, and hopefully something can be gained from it.
As the single most liquid instrument on the planet the ES is prime for the largest players in the world who can throw around millions or even billions into positions. What makes the tape tricky is that it doesn't give you a clear indication as to whether someone is entering or exiting the market. Big players will also build large positions over several different prices in order to push the market in their favor. They will place huge hidden orders on the inside bid or offer and will use algorithms to either constantly refresh the price as contracts print into it, and will also use them to instantly build the preceding offer on a tick up, or a bid on a tick down. They will also use algorithms to place large orders at market in smaller pieces. They will also play both sides of the market, buy, and sell, to keep it stable while they accumulate contracts. The purpose of the tape for me is to only monitor large orders coming in at market. Currently I am using either a 25 or 50 size filter on the Jigsaw Recon Tape with a block filter of 100, and I will treat an instantaneous string of orders of 25 or greater as a block buy or sell.
To me, it's all about where large size steps up to buy or sell the market, and the context of what has happened preceding it. For example lets say that price has put in a new high and is currently four ticks off. Naturally there are those who are going to try and fade it just as there are going to be people that are playing the breakout of that high. This is where the tape can give me clues as to what is more likely to happen. If price reaches the high and you have little buying pressure in the form of large size to push it through and it is met by large size stepping up to sell and/or there are thousands of contracts being absorbed on the offer in the form of large limits or constantly refreshing and instantly building offers you might have an opportunity to fade it. If however price approaches the high at a rapid enough pace, and there is large size stepping up to buy on the tape a couple ticks off I would be more likely to try and play the breakout, and if it doesn't break the high and push through the high, then I will scratch the trade. I think the simplest and most logical rule to follow when playing the break out is "if it doesn't break, get out."
Now, let's say that price has fallen off 6 ticks or more from the high. If there is strong buying in the form of large size down further then that to me indicates that there are large players that are TRYING to push it through the high; they may not succeed, but to me shorting is not an option, because they could easily run it through the high and then frankly you are f****d. But, lets say that price has fallen a few ticks off the high and the tape shows little buying and strong selling comes into the market in the form of large orders. That is how reversals usually happen and I would be looking to short. Usually what will happen is price will drift a few ticks from the high or low and then large size will step up and push it the other way; this combined with longs or shorts covering and those getting squeezed or stops run will cause a reversal and it's also how the "smart money" will get the best, wholesale price. They will be buying into the selling pressure if the market is moving down and is near the bottom, or selling into the buying pressure near the top. The same thing can be applied when the market is in let's say a balanced day, or a trading range. I know that it is going to take some considerable effort buy the buyers or sellers to break the range in either direction due to the fact that so many people will be playing the range, and by looking at the orders coming in on the tape it will tell me if fading the range or buying the bottom of value or selling the top of value is a viable option. I will also look for the rapidity of how price approaches the top or bottom of the range. If it took 4000 ticks or ten minutes to get to the bottom of a trading range and suddenly large orders come into the market and it takes 1500 ticks or 3 minutes to get to the top of the range it could be an indication that price is going to break the other side of the range. If that is the case I will not fade the range or value and look for the market to break and range extension to come into play.
Big players will also defend their position from going against them. Today it was apparent in the morning session of the S&P. After the initial push down, every time price rose to between 1763.50 to 1765, large limits on the offer, constant refreshing of the offer, large selling at market. Those who had forcibly pushed the market down were in no way going to allow it to go against them passed a certain point, even in spite of some size stepping up to bid the market up, and that proved to hold, amazingly even through fed day.
Now let's say the market is rallying up and you see "some" size in the opposite direction on the tape. If it doesn't stop the market chances are it's profit taking. If it's not profit taking it's arbitrage. If the selling stops the market chances are it's going to at the very least become a resistance area, or an area where they squeeze the longs to buy at a better price and then the market goes higher, or an area where the market may pivot and reverse.
In my opinion, in order to successfully read the tape size is the only thing that matters to you. Not what 100 5 lot traders are doing. Or 1000 1 lot traders, but the real size, the size that moves the market. To viably incorporate tape reading into your trading, you need to not only understand where, but understand WHY. If I'm Goldman Sachs and I just sold 10 thousand contracts to push the low and it's bounced off four ticks, am I going to let it reverse on me? No. I'm going to sell 20 thousand more and push it lower, then gradually exit my position into the continued selling pressure and then, THEN the market can reverse.
This again is my two cents, take it for what it's worth.
Happy Trading
Me veo obligado hacer un copy&paste de un hilo de otro foro donde el usuario Orion explica su tesis de la lectura de cinta. Lectura muy recomendaba. A mi sencillamente me ha encantando. Varias de sus explicaciones las comparto y son sobre las que vengo trabajando.
//---------------------------//
It seems that many people try to implement tape reading into their trading, the subject in itself and what information that can be gained from it, to me, is a fascinating subject. Tape reading is an art and frankly tricky business, and I have yet to find any detailed course on it. I will however try and explain my hypothesis on it and how I implement it in trading the S&P. You can take it for what it is, it is simply my two cents, and hopefully something can be gained from it.
As the single most liquid instrument on the planet the ES is prime for the largest players in the world who can throw around millions or even billions into positions. What makes the tape tricky is that it doesn't give you a clear indication as to whether someone is entering or exiting the market. Big players will also build large positions over several different prices in order to push the market in their favor. They will place huge hidden orders on the inside bid or offer and will use algorithms to either constantly refresh the price as contracts print into it, and will also use them to instantly build the preceding offer on a tick up, or a bid on a tick down. They will also use algorithms to place large orders at market in smaller pieces. They will also play both sides of the market, buy, and sell, to keep it stable while they accumulate contracts. The purpose of the tape for me is to only monitor large orders coming in at market. Currently I am using either a 25 or 50 size filter on the Jigsaw Recon Tape with a block filter of 100, and I will treat an instantaneous string of orders of 25 or greater as a block buy or sell.
To me, it's all about where large size steps up to buy or sell the market, and the context of what has happened preceding it. For example lets say that price has put in a new high and is currently four ticks off. Naturally there are those who are going to try and fade it just as there are going to be people that are playing the breakout of that high. This is where the tape can give me clues as to what is more likely to happen. If price reaches the high and you have little buying pressure in the form of large size to push it through and it is met by large size stepping up to sell and/or there are thousands of contracts being absorbed on the offer in the form of large limits or constantly refreshing and instantly building offers you might have an opportunity to fade it. If however price approaches the high at a rapid enough pace, and there is large size stepping up to buy on the tape a couple ticks off I would be more likely to try and play the breakout, and if it doesn't break the high and push through the high, then I will scratch the trade. I think the simplest and most logical rule to follow when playing the break out is "if it doesn't break, get out."
Now, let's say that price has fallen off 6 ticks or more from the high. If there is strong buying in the form of large size down further then that to me indicates that there are large players that are TRYING to push it through the high; they may not succeed, but to me shorting is not an option, because they could easily run it through the high and then frankly you are f****d. But, lets say that price has fallen a few ticks off the high and the tape shows little buying and strong selling comes into the market in the form of large orders. That is how reversals usually happen and I would be looking to short. Usually what will happen is price will drift a few ticks from the high or low and then large size will step up and push it the other way; this combined with longs or shorts covering and those getting squeezed or stops run will cause a reversal and it's also how the "smart money" will get the best, wholesale price. They will be buying into the selling pressure if the market is moving down and is near the bottom, or selling into the buying pressure near the top. The same thing can be applied when the market is in let's say a balanced day, or a trading range. I know that it is going to take some considerable effort buy the buyers or sellers to break the range in either direction due to the fact that so many people will be playing the range, and by looking at the orders coming in on the tape it will tell me if fading the range or buying the bottom of value or selling the top of value is a viable option. I will also look for the rapidity of how price approaches the top or bottom of the range. If it took 4000 ticks or ten minutes to get to the bottom of a trading range and suddenly large orders come into the market and it takes 1500 ticks or 3 minutes to get to the top of the range it could be an indication that price is going to break the other side of the range. If that is the case I will not fade the range or value and look for the market to break and range extension to come into play.
Big players will also defend their position from going against them. Today it was apparent in the morning session of the S&P. After the initial push down, every time price rose to between 1763.50 to 1765, large limits on the offer, constant refreshing of the offer, large selling at market. Those who had forcibly pushed the market down were in no way going to allow it to go against them passed a certain point, even in spite of some size stepping up to bid the market up, and that proved to hold, amazingly even through fed day.
Now let's say the market is rallying up and you see "some" size in the opposite direction on the tape. If it doesn't stop the market chances are it's profit taking. If it's not profit taking it's arbitrage. If the selling stops the market chances are it's going to at the very least become a resistance area, or an area where they squeeze the longs to buy at a better price and then the market goes higher, or an area where the market may pivot and reverse.
In my opinion, in order to successfully read the tape size is the only thing that matters to you. Not what 100 5 lot traders are doing. Or 1000 1 lot traders, but the real size, the size that moves the market. To viably incorporate tape reading into your trading, you need to not only understand where, but understand WHY. If I'm Goldman Sachs and I just sold 10 thousand contracts to push the low and it's bounced off four ticks, am I going to let it reverse on me? No. I'm going to sell 20 thousand more and push it lower, then gradually exit my position into the continued selling pressure and then, THEN the market can reverse.
This again is my two cents, take it for what it's worth.
Happy Trading
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Interesante, gracias por compartir.h4x0r escribió:Buen paper me he encontrado sobre los HFT en E-mini S&P 500
Exploratory Trading
job market paper
Adam D. Clark-Joseph
January 13, 2013
https://es.scribd.com/document/13008664 ... rket-Paper
Saludos,
X-Trader
"Los sistemas de trading pueden funcionar en ciertas condiciones de mercado todo el tiempo, en todas las condiciones de mercado en algún momento del tiempo, pero nunca en todas las condiciones de mercado todo el tiempo."
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Por cierto, aporto mi visión sobre el SP: en mi opinión veo posible rotura en falso del 2200 y luego vuelta dentro de un amplio lateral entre 2000 y 2200 con deriva alcista. A ver en qué saco me metes 
Saludos,
X-Trader
Saludos,
X-Trader
"Los sistemas de trading pueden funcionar en ciertas condiciones de mercado todo el tiempo, en todas las condiciones de mercado en algún momento del tiempo, pero nunca en todas las condiciones de mercado todo el tiempo."
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Largos:
- h4x0r
Wikmar
Josephine
Juancv
- Jda
- N/A
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
ES haciendo máximos históricos
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Sí, momento histórico.h4x0r escribió:ES haciendo máximos históricos
El secreto del trading se encuentra en nuestra mente y en la disciplina. Esto no se aprende en ningún libro, se aprende operando y conociéndose a si mismo.
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
Trade made simple
Re: El hilo del E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
El doble techo en máximos históricos que se ha formado entre el máximo de ayer y el de hoy... da miedo.
Si te ha gustado este hilo del Foro, ¡compártelo en redes!
