http://www.cftc.gov/opa/backgrounder/opacot596.htm
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports ... entReports
gráficos:
http://www.futures.tradingcharts.com/cu ... tures.html
apartado sobre el COT en el libro d Elder:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
collects reports from brokers on the positions of traders and releases
their summaries to the public. Those COT (commitments of traders)
reports are among the best sources of information on what the smart
money is doing in the futures markets. COT reports reveal positions of
three groups: hedgers, big traders, and small traders. How do they
know who is who? Hedgers identify themselves to brokers because
that entitles them to several advantages, such as lower margin rates.
Big traders are identified by holding the number of contracts above
“reporting requirements,” set by the government. Whoever is not a
hedger or a big trader is a small trader.
In the old days, big traders used to be the smart money. Today, the
markets are bigger, the reporting requirements much higher, and big
traders are likely to be commodity funds, most of them not much
smarter than the run-of-the-mill trader. Hedgers are today’s smart
money but understanding their positions isn’t as easy as it seems.
For example, a COT report may show that in a certain market,
hedgers hold 70% of shorts. A beginner who thinks this is bearish may
208 THE THREE M’S OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING
be completely off the mark without knowing that normally hedgers
hold 90% of shorts in that market, making the 70% stance wildly bullish.
Savvy COT analysts compare current positions to historical norms
and look for situations where hedgers, or the smart money, and small
traders, many of whom are gamblers and losers, are dead set against
each other. If one group is heavily short while the other is just as heavily
long, which one would you like to join? If you find that in a certain
market the smart money is overwhelmingly on one side, while the
small specs are mobbing the other, it is time to use technical analysis
to look for entries on the side of hedgers.
y para ampliar (busca 20 octubre):
http://www.onlypill.blogspot.com/